Sabermetric Player Value vs. Fantasy Baseball Points
Fantasy baseball isn't broken, but it has the potential to be much smarter
The 2025 season highlights a growing disconnect between fantasy baseball and real-life value. While ESPN’s fantasy scoring celebrates players like Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto for traditional stats, it completely overlooks the impact of defense and contextual performance, which are areas where players like Alejandro Kirk and Kris Bubic shine.
As a fantasy manager pushing for the playoffs, I dove into this contrast using first-half 2025 data. What I found could change how you approach your league and how you view the game itself.
The Tale of Two Systems
ESPN’s standard Head-to-Head points system rewards traditional, countable stats (home runs, RBIs, strikeouts) using whole numbers for simplicity. It’s intuitive and fun but lacks nuance.
Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) attempts to measure a player's total contribution to their team—including defense, baserunning, and context. It’s not perfect, but it’s far closer to capturing a player's true value than fantasy points alone.
The 2025 season through the All-Star break has provided perfect examples of how these systems create wildly different player valuations.
Pete Crow-Armstrong - What Defense?
With 5.0 fWAR (2nd in MLB), Pete Crow-Armstrong’s elite defense has made him an MVP candidate. He leads the league in 5-star catches and Outs Above Average. But in fantasy, he barely cracks the top 20 players, scoring fewer points than poor defenders Kyle Schwarber (2.9 fWAR) and Juan Soto (3.0 fWAR). Defensive stars like Patrick Bailey are similarly undervalued. He’s a top defensive catcher with 1.7 fWAR, yet ranks 36th at his position in fantasy and is barely rostered.
When Crow-Armstrong makes a diving catch to rob a double, saving two runs and preserving a win, fantasy owners get nothing. But that play might be worth 0.1 fWAR—roughly equivalent to going 2-for-4 with an RBI in offensive value.
The Pitcher Gap: Bubic vs. Hoffman
Kris Bubic ranks 7th in pitcher fWAR (3.1) but only 21st in fantasy points. Jeff Hoffman (5.04 ERA, 22 saves) is 47th in fantasy, yet 368th in fWAR (0.1). The reason is simple: fantasy prioritizes wins and saves, stats driven more by team and manager decisions than actual performance.
Why This Happens
Context Matters (But Not in Fantasy): WAR adjusts for park effects, competition, and leverage. Fantasy does not.
Counting Stats Over Efficiency: A 2-for-5 game with singles scores more than a 1-for-3 game with a double and walk, even if the latter is more valuable to a team
Team Bias: Players on high-scoring teams rack up more RBIs and runs, inflating their fantasy value regardless of efficiency or defense.
How This Helps You Win
Understanding this gap lets you find undervalued players, like poor defenders, and avoid overpaying for sabermetric darlings with poor fantasy production. Fantasy may not reflect real baseball, so knowing the difference gives you a strategic edge.
In Defense of ESPN
Fantasy baseball was built for fun, not realism. ESPN’s simple scoring system works because it’s easy to follow and has wide appeal. And that’s okay. For stat-heads, other platforms offer more realistic scoring options.
A Modest Proposal
Platforms like ESPN could start bridging the gap, maybe with a small WAR or efficiency bonus to better align fantasy value with real contributions. It wouldn’t just improve scoring, it could introduce more fans to advanced stats and deepen their love for the game.
Sources
https://support.espn.com/hc/en-us/articles/360057163871-Standard-Scoring-for-Public-Baseball-leagues
https://www.espn.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/id/43426902/espn-playbook-inning-2-pick-right-fantasy-baseball-format-2025-draft-kit-advice
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/advanced-stats/wins-above-replacement
https://www.espn.com/mlb/war/leaders
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-we-undervalue-defense/
https://www.insiderbaseball.com/blog/2018/02/sabermetrics_why_they_matter_in_fantasy_baseball.html
https://www.reddit.com/r/Sabermetrics/comments/43a0qi/using_saber_categories_in_fantasy_scoring/
https://pitcherlist.com/2025-fantasy-baseball-week-14-faab-insights/
https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/paul-sporers-baseball-chat-june-18th-2025/
https://www.rotoballer.com/5-undervalued-hitters-fantasy-baseball-waiver-wire-pickups-sleepers-week-15/1644521